Despite a current maximum sustained wind strength of 50 mph, the track of Chris keeps it away from land. Chris should continue moving east to northeast and after some potential strengthening today, should begin to weaken tomorrow and eventually die sometime this weekend.
While Tropical Storm Chris may not be of any concern to the United States, the concern for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico may be. For some time now, the GFS model has been hinting at the potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico sometime late this week. Now that this time is getting closer, the National Hurricane Center has begun to monitor this area and has highlighted it with a 20% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours.
A low pressure trough is in place from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to southern Florida and has been producing widespread cloudiness along with showers and thunderstorms. The system is expected to continue moving slowly northwest into the southeast Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours where it should encounter conditions that will be more favorable for development. If the system does form it will become the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season and acquire the name Debby.
Below is the current 850 mb relative vorticity from the 12Z NAM model showing some weak vorticity across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico area this morning.
As this relative vorticity strengthens, as shown for the 12Z NAM model depicting 48 hours from this morning, tropical development will become more favorable across the Gulf of Mexico.
A big issue for strong development though will be the sea surface temperatures, shown below. While the temperatures themselves are warm enough for development, the highest sea surface temperatures will likely remain just to the west of the system as it makes its track toward the northwest.
If this system moves further west than expected, it may have a chance at strengthening more than anticipated at this moment. However, at this time the NAM model does not expect this to happen. Shown below are the 06Z NAM run and the 12Z NAM run showing what the surface winds and pressure of the system may look like on Saturday afternoon.
Both model runs believe the system will be just south of Louisiana with a central pressure just below 1008 mb. Winds would likely be topping out between 20 and 30 knots, leaving this system just shy of tropical storm strength. If this were to be the case, this system would be nothing more than a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast. Below is the precipitation forecast from the 12Z NAM model showing the total amount of precipitation it expects to fall from this morning until Saturday evening.
Now before ruling this system out as just as rainmaker, the GFS model continues to tell a different tale. The 12Z GFS model has this system moving in a similar track to the NAM model at first with the center of the system being a little ways south of Louisiana, shown below.
Now it is important to note that the NAM model may have a similar solution but due to its run only going out 84 hours, it is impossible to tell where it thinks this system may go. The GFS model does have the system being further south than NAM model though and that could be a reason for what the GFS model thinks may come next. Below is the 12Z GFS model showing what would be Tropical Storm Debby making landfall across central Florida on Monday night.
In this model run, it appears the central pressure would be around 994 mb with peak winds above 40 knots (46 mph). If this were the case, we could be looking at a strong tropical storm hitting Florida with some damaging winds, a tornado threat, and flooding rainfall. Below is the 96 hour precipitation forecast showing total precipitation from this morning until Sunday morning as depicted by the 12Z GFS model.
Before the storm would even make landfall, some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast could pick up well over 3 inches of rain with isolated amounts likely reaching 10 inches. The situation would only get worse as the system would cross Florida in this scenario and head north just off the shore of the East Coast. Shown below is the total precipitation expected by the 12Z GFS model run from Sunday morning until next Thursday morning.
At least another inch of rain will fall across many parts of central and southern Florida with some areas receiving in excess of six inches of precipitation during this time period, shown in white and gray. In fact, some isolated area could see above 10 inches of precipitation during this time period resulting in storm totals nearing 20 inches in the worst hit areas. If this were to come true, there could be widespread flooding issues across the state of Florida.
From here, as mentioned, Debby would head north and actually restrengthen. Below is the 12Z GFS model depicting the storm on next Wednesday morning just off the coast of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The central pressure of the system may be all the way down to around 984 mb with winds in excess of 50 knots.
In this scenario, the system would continue to push northward and gradually weaken as it encountered land, potentially making landfall in Maine. If this were the case, heavy precipitation amount, shown in the precipitation map above, may result in some flooding and beach erosion may become a concern. Additionally, while winds should subside some before making landfall, high winds could still be an issue in coastal areas.
Keep an eye on this tropical system throughout the week as it does pose some potential to become of the first hurricane of the season if it can follow a path similar to what the GFS is thinking. Either way, this system will be bringing a lot of rain to wherever it strikes and people living along the Gulf Coast, especially the eastern half, should continue to monitor this system carefully over the next few days.