The Climate Prediction Center has also issued a forecast for the same variables for the 8 to 14 day period which would be from June 12th – 18th.




The Northeast

A cold front pushed through the northeast late last week bringing rounds of storms to the area. Behind that, the northeast has been under an air mass providing for seasonable, if not below average, temperatures for the past few days. Temperatures will slowly begin to climb this week and by this weekend above average temperatures will be in store for most again. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above average temperatures being likely across the northeast from June 10th through the 18th. The 18Z run of the GFS model depicts this early on in the period as shown below.

The top image shows temperatures for the early to mid afternoon on June 11th and the second image shows temperatures for the early to mid afternoon on June 12th. Temperatures may exceed 90 degrees in some areas meaning daytime highs could reach around the 95 mark in some isolated areas. Most areas of the Northeast will see high temperatures at least into the upper 70s to low 80s with most areas being well into the 80s though.
The forecasts diverge somewhat come the second half of the period as the Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate above average temperatures being likely. However, these forecasts are not as likely as they forecasted during the first half of the period. Meanwhile, the 18Z run of the GFS model expects some cooler air to potentially enter parts of the Northeast. Below is the early to mid afternoon temperatures for June 18th. Some temperatures are struggling to reach the 60 degree mark in New York state on this date according to the GFS. Granted this forecast is pretty far out but it may be that the warm temperature returning to the Northeast this week do not last as long as the Climate Prediction Center believes they will.
The Southwest
The Southwest has been suffering from drought conditions for some time now. As of the May 29th update, most of the Southwest has been classified under a severe drought.
In fact, many of these areas across the Southwest have received little, if any, precipitation during the past two weeks.
This, combined with the lack of precipitation expected in the near future, will set the stage for fire weather across this area. The June 10th through 18th period is expected to result in below average precipitation across the Southwest according to the Climate Prediction Center. The 18Z run of the GFS model shown below shows this below average precipitation over this time period.
For this reason, some areas of the Southwest have been highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center as being under a threat for wildfires on June 8th and 9th. This threat for wildfires will undoubtedly continue beyond this time frame as dry air continues to stay in place.
Below is the 18Z GFS model showing very low dewpoints and strong surface winds across the threat area on the 8th and the 9th. In fact some dewpoints may struggle to hit zero degrees showing just how dry the air will be across the desert Southwest.