So far today, the rains have continued mainly over some of the same areas which received heavy rains yesterday and moved further north as well, as shown below. Some areas have already picked up in excess of three inches of rainfall this morning. This has prompted the issuance of multiple flash flood warnings and other flood warning and watch products today across the Gulf Coast.
In fact, some of the flash flooding around Mobile, AL has got so severe today that the National Weather Service has used strong wording to describe the flooding with this event. The current Flash Flood Warning for the Mobile area states that “this is an extreme event…not a typical flash flood”. Water rescues have been reported in the area and multiple streets have been closed due to high water. Unfortunately, this problem will likely only get worse over the next couple days. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has highlighted this area and surrounding areas for being at risk for flash floods over the straight through the weekend. Below is the outlook showing potential for flash floods this afternoon through Sunday evening.
A slight risk (5% to 10% chance) of flash floods covers a rather large area of the Florida panhandle as well as mainly parts of southern Alabama. An elevated moderate risk (10% to 15% chance) of flash floods exists across much of the Florida panhandle as well. A slight risk continues for Sunday night into Monday evening across extreme southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama as well as much of the Florida panhandle, as shown below.
Heavy rains will affect more than just these areas though. The HPC 5 day precipitation forecast, shown below, shows many areas across the Southeast receiving at least one inch of rainfall or more. In fact, a large area across extreme southeast Louisiana, extreme southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida panhandle, most of Georgia, western South Carolina and western North Carolina may receive in excess of three inches of rain. Isolated areas will likely see in excess of six inches of rain which has already been seen in the Mobile area.
The GFS model shows a similar scenario with a large area of the southeast expected to receive at least one inch of rain through the early morning hours of Wednesday. Some areas are likely to receive greater than three inches of rain, especially across parts of Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and northern Georgia.
The NAM model also shows this heavy rain across the Southeast with greater than one inch totals through Tuesday early afternoon across mainly the western half of the Southeast. It also shows the heaviest precipitation amounts more to the west covering much of Mississippi and the Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.
It is likely therefore, that the GFS model is progressing this storm system a little faster and further to the east than the NAM model is. Judging by past events, it is likely the NAM solution will be closer to the eventual truth but this does not mean that Alabama and Georgia are out of the woods for heavy precipitation. As the storm continues to move toward the east, it will continue to dump precipitation across these areas.
Flash flooding will be the major issue with this system as it progresses slowly to the north and east throughout this weekend and into early next week. This event will be bring beneficial rainfall to the Southeast though, just before the heat of summer reaches these regions. So while it pours across the Southeast, just be sure to stay safe and remember turn around don’t drown.