If Chris is to form we may start seeing development as early as this coming weekend or into early next week. Below is the 18Z Monday run of the GFS model, showing the system beginning to first become identifiable Friday night into Saturday morning, which would be June 22nd into the 23rd, in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The central pressure of the system would be somewhere between 1005 mb and 1008 mb with winds topping out at just over 20 knots, likely making it a Tropical Depression at this stage.

The 00Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has the development of this system starting sooner in the morning hours of June 21st. The central pressure once again would be between 1005 mb and 1008 mb with winds peaking at potentially just a little stronger, near 25 knots. The key difference here is the earlier starting date for development and development occurring further to the east than the previous model run.
The 06Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has the creation of this system occurring even further to the east, this time actually off the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the night of Tuesday June 19th. The central pressure of the system is still the same at between 1005 mb and 1008 mb and winds peak at around 25 knots, similar to the 00Z run.
Lastly, the 12Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has a similar evolution of the storm to the 00Z run, just starting a little later on the night of the 21st. The central pressure once again should be somewhere between 1005 mb and 1008 mb with peak winds just above 20 knots.
All in all, the model runs are not varying that much on starting strength of this system and even location is not that different with the Yucatan Peninsula area being the area to watch. The main difference will be the timing of development which ranges from the night of June 19th to the early morning hours of June 23rd.
After this, the model runs seem to diverge even more, which partially is due to there being more time between then and now. Taking a look at all of the model runs again, starting with the 18Z Monday run, we see this run has progressed the system north to the coastal area of Mississippi and the Florida panhandle. The central pressure has dropped to between 1001 mb and 1004 mb with winds now peaking at above 30 knots. This is the strongest run for this system and if it were to come true we may see Tropical Storm Chris in the Gulf of Mexico on or around Monday, June 25th.
The 00Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, still has a central pressure just below 1008 mb but has also moved the storm system north toward the Gulf Coast. The winds have also strengthened to just above 30 knots though in not as large of an area as the 18Z run. The system would be located in this location during the evening of June 21st.
The 06Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, still has the central pressure at just below 1008 mb with winds just above 25 knots. This is weaker than the previous two runs but keeps the general track of taking the storm north toward the Gulf Coast. This would be the approximate location of the system on the afternoon of June 21st.
The last model run, the 12Z Tuesday GFS, shown below, has the only solution where the system rides closer to the Texas and Mexico coastlines. The central pressure remains at just below 1008 mb with winds just above 25 knots during the evening hours of June 22nd.
So overall, the system will be at its peaks sometime between the afternoon of June 21st and midday on June 25th. Model runs indicate peaks winds between 25 knots and close to 35 knots with a central pressure lower than 1008 mb and as low as close to 1000mb. It appears that the longer this system can stay over the Gulf, the stronger it may become.
Taking a look at where this system may dissipate now, the 18Z Monday run, shown below, has the system actually running up the east coast and restrengthening off the coasts of New Jersey and Connecticut. In fact, this could be the strongest portion of the system though most of the stronger winds would be off the coast. Nonetheless, this could bring a rain and wave threat to the east coast for June 25th through the 26th. From here, the system will continue quickly north and into Canada. This is the only run which has the system making it this far north as you will see so it is difficult to say whether this is a real possibility at this time, though this would be the most concerning path.
The 00Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has the system weaken and eventually die over the Mississippi and Alabama areas.
The 06Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, also has the system making landfall on the Gulf Coast and weakening in about the same way as the 00Z run did.
The 12Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, takes the system in the Texas and Mexico border area where it weakens. This is the only run that did not take the system toward the Florida panhandle area and would actually be the most beneficial solution if it occurred as will be explained below.
Overall, the system could die out over a large range of land and therefore this part is especially up in the air. Taking a look at the precipitation forecasts for the 96 hours leading up to the dissipation of the system for each model run below, we can see the paths of the different models quite well.
We see the general track from the Gulf of Mexico and up the eastern seaboard for the 18Z Monday run. We also see the similar tracks of the 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs for the system to weaken and die out along the Gulf Coast region. Lastly, we can see the rainfall for Texas and Mexico for the 12Z track.
Overall, it appears the main threat at the moment for this system will be its rainfall. For the Texas area, if the storm were to head this direction many areas of southern Texas may see in excess of 2 inches of rainfall which would be welcome news in that area. The previous three runs however, bring a lot of rain to the Gulf Coast, an area that is just beginning to dry out after a very wet weekend for most. Many areas picked up large amounts of rainfall such as West Pensacola which picked up a staggering 23.58 inches of rain in 48 hours. The Mobile area was also struck with heavy amounts of rain which contributed to flooding issues. Below is an image showing just how much rain has fallen over these areas in the past week.



If this system were to affect these areas we could be looking at another round of flooding rains. This could lead to repeating concerns of floods throughout this area as we continue through hurricane season as many storms are suppose to be home grown this season due to the strengthening El Nino conditions. This means more storms may form in the Gulf and immediately dump rain across these areas. This will certainly be something worth monitoring as head into the end of this week and early next week.