The heat will continue tomorrow too, shown below, though it will not be quite as hot as today in most spots across the Southwest. However, this does not mean the heat is coming to an end as the current weather models tend to show an extended period of heat affecting this region. It appears that summer is here and here to stay in the Southwest.
And as if the heat was not bad enough, it appears that the air will be quite dry as well. This dry air will only exasperate the current wildfire situation across the Southwest. There are currently multiple large fires burning across the Southwest area which is shown below.
In fact, some of the larger fires can even be seen on satellite today. Below is a visible satellite image from today showing two large fires in Colorado. One is the in the middle northern portion of the state and has already burnt nearly 60,000 acres resulting in the loss of 181 structures so far. That fire is currently only 45% contained. The other is a smaller fire in the middle of the state west of Colorado Springs. That fire has only burnt about 300 acres so far but it is 0% contained and threatens many structures in the area.
Many of these large fires are burning due to the lack of rain which has occurred in the Southwest this year so far. Below is an image depicting the year to date rainfall across the Southwest as a percentage of normal. As can be seen, a vast majority of the Southwest has seen below normal precipitation so far this year. The areas in reds have seen less than 25% of their typical precipitation thus far this year.
This year’s lack of rainfall across the Southwest, coupled with drought problems from last year, have resulted in continuing drought issues. Below is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor showing almost all of the Southwest at least being abnormally dry. Some areas in northwest Colorado, southeast New Mexico, and parts of Arizona are even experiencing extreme drought.
So far no areas have qualified for exceptional drought, which is good news. But, with monsoon season really still being about a month away and little rain expected in the future, these drought conditions will likely only continue to worsen. Below is the 12Z NAM model’s prediction for precipitation over the next 84 hours ending Thursday evening. Little, if any precipitation is expected over the Southwest during this time period.
The 12Z GFS model does show a better chance for precipitation across parts of Arizona, northern New Mexico, and Colorado for this weekend and early next week though. However, with such dry air in place, much of this precipitation may evaporate before it hits the ground. This could result in dry thunderstorms and could escalate the wildfire issue instead of helping it by creating new lightning sparked fires across the area.
Back to the near term though, dew points will be incredibly low today and tomorrow, shown below. Making matters worse, surface winds will be between 10 and 20 knots or higher for much of the Southwest.
This will result in a large area at risk for wildfires today. A critical area includes much of interior southern California, Nevada, southern Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, western Colorado, and northern Arizona. Other areas across southern Arizona, New Mexico and into eastern Colorado, while not at a critical risk, will still be dealing with ideal conditions for wildfire growth and development. By tomorrow, winds will subside some resulting in less of a risk of wildfires. That being said, a critical risk will still exist across northeast Utah, northwest Colorado, and southern Wyoming. Some risk may also exist across southern Arizona.
If you live or will be traveling to the Southwest anytime soon, please be aware of the heat and fire conditions that will undoubtedly be in place for much of this region. Hopefully some relief will occur this weekend into early next week for fire danger but do not expect it to be long lived.