Historic Heat and Drought

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

If you could ask people throughout the contiguous United States what two words they would use to describe the weather conditions this spring and so far this summer, I would imagine the answers would run along the lines of hot and dry. This has been the case for most areas in the lower 48 states so far this year, though it is important to note that this is not true for everywhere in the lower 48. In fact, some areas have seen above normal precipitation so far this year, including areas of central Texas, most of Maine, as well as many areas of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains.

The graphic below shows how temperatures compared to the 1981 to 2010 average across the lower 48 last month. Despite the month officially rating as the fourth warmest June on record globally, with records dating back to 1880, some areas of the U.S. saw below normal temperatures during this time period, denoted in blues below.



But like I stated previously, most of the nation has been experiencing heat and little rainfall. June marked the 328th continuous month with temperatures above the 20th century average according to NOAA. The United States seems to be taking the brunt of the heat as well. Temperatures globally in June were nearly two degrees Fahrenheit above average on the world’s landmasses and have been 1.57 degrees above average so far this year. But in the U.S., temperatures have been averaging 4.5 degrees above normal so far this year, now that is some heat!

And as if the heat was not enough to worry about, drought conditions have continued to worsen across a vast portion of the lower 48 states. Drought conditions are depicted in the map below as of July 10th and have likely continued to worse across many portions.

In terms of the area affected by this drought, this is now officially the worse drought since the 1950s. About 61% of the continental U.S. currently qualifies as being in some level of a drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Palmer Drought Index, an older and less detailed index, reports that 56% of the United States is currently under drought conditions. The last time drought covered more area in the lower 48 states was in December 1956.

This current drought does not compare to past droughts in duration yet, but with no major relief in the near future, conditions may continue for some time. Below is the NAM model depicting how much precipitation may fall over the next 84 hours. While some relief may fall over this time period, it will not affect all areas and will not be enough to eliminate the precipitation deficit, though any help will be very welcomed in these areas.

Below is the precipitation across the United States over the past 60 days when compared to normal, showing many areas suffering from precipitation deficits.

All of this heat and lack of precipitation has unfortunately led to many issues across the nation and will continue to do so. Heat related deaths have occurred in many states and many more have likely suffered from heat related illnesses. Additionally, dry conditions have wreaked havoc on the nation’s corn crop, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture now reporting that 38% of the crop is in poor or very poor condition. Problems have also arisen in the form of wildfires due to the dry conditions. Below is a map showing the current large wildfires across the United States.

The summer will likely continue with more hot and dry conditions so it is important to take precautions to protect your life and property. Be sure to stay hydrated, take breaks from the sun, monitor any fires you start closely, and of course stay up to date on the latest weather information.

Heat Set to Return to the Northeast and Dry Air Takes Hold in the Southwest

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

Below are the forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center for 6 to 10 days out, June 10th – 14th, for the probability of temperatures being above and below average and precipitation being above and below average.

The Climate Prediction Center has also issued a forecast for the same variables for the 8 to 14 day period which would be from June 12th – 18th.

The Northeast

A cold front pushed through the northeast late last week bringing rounds of storms to the area. Behind that, the northeast has been under an air mass providing for seasonable, if not below average, temperatures for the past few days. Temperatures will slowly begin to climb this week and by this weekend above average temperatures will be in store for most again. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above average temperatures being likely across the northeast from June 10th through the 18th. The 18Z run of the GFS model depicts this early on in the period as shown below.

The top image shows temperatures for the early to mid afternoon on June 11th and the second image shows temperatures for the early to mid afternoon on June 12th. Temperatures may exceed 90 degrees in some areas meaning daytime highs could reach around the 95 mark in some isolated areas. Most areas of the Northeast will see high temperatures at least into the upper 70s to low 80s with most areas being well into the 80s though.

The forecasts diverge somewhat come the second half of the period as the Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate above average temperatures being likely. However, these forecasts are not as likely as they forecasted during the first half of the period. Meanwhile, the 18Z run of the GFS model expects some cooler air to potentially enter parts of the Northeast. Below is the early to mid afternoon temperatures for June 18th. Some temperatures are struggling to reach the 60 degree mark in New York state on this date according to the GFS. Granted this forecast is pretty far out but it may be that the warm temperature returning to the Northeast this week do not last as long as the Climate Prediction Center believes they will.

The Southwest

The Southwest has been suffering from drought conditions for some time now. As of the May 29th update, most of the Southwest has been classified under a severe drought.

In fact, many of these areas across the Southwest have received little, if any, precipitation during the past two weeks.

This, combined with the lack of precipitation expected in the near future, will set the stage for fire weather across this area. The June 10th through 18th period is expected to result in below average precipitation across the Southwest according to the Climate Prediction Center. The 18Z run of the GFS model shown below shows this below average precipitation over this time period.

For this reason, some areas of the Southwest have been highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center as being under a threat for wildfires on June 8th and 9th. This threat for wildfires will undoubtedly continue beyond this time frame as dry air continues to stay in place.

Below is the 18Z GFS model showing very low dewpoints and strong surface winds across the threat area on the 8th and the 9th. In fact some dewpoints may struggle to hit zero degrees showing just how dry the air will be across the desert Southwest.

Heavy Rains Target the ArkLaTex and Surrounding Areas

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

Heavy rains will be the story on and off over the next few days for the ArkLaTex and surrounding areas as multiple upper level disturbances cross the area. The first round of rain and storms is currently underway associated with a cold front. Some areas have already received in excess of two inches of rainfall from this event with much more on the way. Below is the radar as of 6:36 PM EST showing heavy rains and thunderstorms stretching from eastern Texas all the way to the edge of the radar image in Tennessee and Kentucky. The cold front is very evident with temperatures dropping about 30 degrees from the warm side of the front to the cold side. This could spark a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into early tonight with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. This precipitation will continue to push south and east throughout the overnight and into Friday.

The second round of rain will begin Saturday over eastern and central Texas, spreading north and eastward throughout the weekend. This rain will be associated with this same sort of stalled out cold front from the first round and a cut off low which was previously over the Rockies. The current projections from the HPC show a large swath of 5 inches or more of rainfall extending from eastern Texas into northwest Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. These are the expected rainfall totals starting this morning and ending Tuesday morning from both of these rounds of precipitation. Some isolated areas within this 5 inches or greater region could even see in excess of 7 inches of precipitation!

Despite the threat of some flash flooding from this heavy rain, this comes mostly as good news to this area. Below is the current drought monitor across the United States as of Tuesday morning. As you can see, many areas that are experiencing drought, especially in eastern Texas, will benefit tremendously from this rainfall.

In the near term though, if you live or plan on traveling through this area, be on the lookout for flash flooding. Luckily, due to the lack of snowfall this year, the excess rain should not provide for any long term threat for flooding. However, do allow yourself extra time to get from destination to destination as some of this rainfall could be very heavy and produce almost blinding road conditions at times.