Heavy Rain and Storms for the Southeast

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

Heavy rains associated with showers and storms across the Gulf Coast will soak ground across many parts of the Southeast this weekend and into early next week. The rains are part of an upper level disturbance associated with a weak surface front which will move through the area. Yesterday’s totals for precipitation are shown below. Rainfall totals varied quite a bit along the Gulf Coast with some areas receiving little, if any, precipitation, while other areas received greater than three inches of rain.

So far today, the rains have continued mainly over some of the same areas which received heavy rains yesterday and moved further north as well, as shown below. Some areas have already picked up in excess of three inches of rainfall this morning. This has prompted the issuance of multiple flash flood warnings and other flood warning and watch products today across the Gulf Coast.

In fact, some of the flash flooding around Mobile, AL has got so severe today that the National Weather Service has used strong wording to describe the flooding with this event. The current Flash Flood Warning for the Mobile area states that “this is an extreme event…not a typical flash flood”. Water rescues have been reported in the area and multiple streets have been closed due to high water. Unfortunately, this problem will likely only get worse over the next couple days. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has highlighted this area and surrounding areas for being at risk for flash floods over the straight through the weekend. Below is the outlook showing potential for flash floods this afternoon through Sunday evening.

A slight risk (5% to 10% chance) of flash floods covers a rather large area of the Florida panhandle as well as mainly parts of southern Alabama. An elevated moderate risk (10% to 15% chance) of flash floods exists across much of the Florida panhandle as well. A slight risk continues for Sunday night into Monday evening across extreme southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama as well as much of the Florida panhandle, as shown below.

Heavy rains will affect more than just these areas though. The HPC 5 day precipitation forecast, shown below, shows many areas across the Southeast receiving at least one inch of rainfall or more. In fact, a large area across extreme southeast Louisiana, extreme southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida panhandle, most of Georgia, western South Carolina and western North Carolina may receive in excess of three inches of rain. Isolated areas will likely see in excess of six inches of rain which has already been seen in the Mobile area.

The GFS model shows a similar scenario with a large area of the southeast expected to receive at least one inch of rain through the early morning hours of Wednesday. Some areas are likely to receive greater than three inches of rain, especially across parts of Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and northern Georgia.

The NAM model also shows this heavy rain across the Southeast with greater than one inch totals through Tuesday early afternoon across mainly the western half of the Southeast. It also shows the heaviest precipitation amounts more to the west covering much of Mississippi and the Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

It is likely therefore, that the GFS model is progressing this storm system a little faster and further to the east than the NAM model is. Judging by past events, it is likely the NAM solution will be closer to the eventual truth but this does not mean that Alabama and Georgia are out of the woods for heavy precipitation. As the storm continues to move toward the east, it will continue to dump precipitation across these areas.

Flash flooding will be the major issue with this system as it progresses slowly to the north and east throughout this weekend and into early next week. This event will be bring beneficial rainfall to the Southeast though, just before the heat of summer reaches these regions. So while it pours across the Southeast, just be sure to stay safe and remember turn around don’t drown.

Heavy Rains Finally on the Exit

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

An upper-level low which has essentially become cut off from the jet stream and therefore is barely moving has affected many regions of the United States over the past week. The current location of the upper-level low as of this morning was over the Central Oklahoma area as depicted by the 250 mb chart from the NAM model’s initialization.

The good news is the low should finally begin to move eastward with a little more speed today and reach the Illinois to Indiana area by Saturday morning according to the NAM model. The GFS model shows a very similar situation occurring. From here, both models have the upper-level low continuing east, as it does the precipitation associated with it should weaken and push off of the East Coast. Once over the waters of the Atlantic, the cutoff low appears as though it will finally start to be pulled back into the jet stream making way for the next trough to enter from the Pacific.

What is stunning about this low is how much rainfall it dropped across parts of the nation. Below is the observed precipitation amounts for the last seven days ending this morning. As you can see, many areas in the southern Plains and across the Gulf states have been soaked by rainfall from this system. Many places in western Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, northeastern Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi have seen in excess of two inches of rainfall with some spots seeing over five inches of rain. Some areas in southwestern Louisiana have even seen amounts in excess of ten inches of rain with one place reporting just over fifteen inches from this week’s storms!

When taking into consideration the storm systems that worked through these same areas last week, the rainfall totals become even more impressive. Below is the image of observed precipitation amounts over the last 14 days ending this morning. The red colors depict areas that have received in excess of five inches of rainfall over the past two weeks which includes areas in western Oklahoma, Arkansas, northeastern Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Mississippi. Rainfall totals of over fifteen inches were observed across some areas of Louisiana with some isolated areas receiving close to twenty inches of rain over the past two weeks.

With all of this rain and still more to come for some areas as shown by the current radar image below, many rivers are currently experiencing or are forecasted to experience at least near flood stage to minor flood stage issues.

However, some river gauges, denoted in red and purple colors below, are currently experiencing or are expecting to experience moderate to major flooding, respectively.

Fortunately due to the mild winter across much of the nation, these rivers should recover fairly quickly from this excess rain because they will not have to deal with too much snow pack melt. In fact, as of this morning only 11.1% of the contiguous United States was covered by snow as show in the image below. There is almost no snow in the United States east of the Rockies, with just a few areas near the Canadian border in the northeast hanging out to light snow packs.

Like last week’s storms though, this was welcome news for many in the south to help alleviate drought conditions that have persisted in some of these areas for some time. In the meantime however, be on the look out for flooding and flash flooding. Somewhat more seasonable temperatures and less rainfall should return to the eastern half of the nation as we head into the beginning of next week.

Heavy Rains Target the ArkLaTex and Surrounding Areas

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

Heavy rains will be the story on and off over the next few days for the ArkLaTex and surrounding areas as multiple upper level disturbances cross the area. The first round of rain and storms is currently underway associated with a cold front. Some areas have already received in excess of two inches of rainfall from this event with much more on the way. Below is the radar as of 6:36 PM EST showing heavy rains and thunderstorms stretching from eastern Texas all the way to the edge of the radar image in Tennessee and Kentucky. The cold front is very evident with temperatures dropping about 30 degrees from the warm side of the front to the cold side. This could spark a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into early tonight with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. This precipitation will continue to push south and east throughout the overnight and into Friday.

The second round of rain will begin Saturday over eastern and central Texas, spreading north and eastward throughout the weekend. This rain will be associated with this same sort of stalled out cold front from the first round and a cut off low which was previously over the Rockies. The current projections from the HPC show a large swath of 5 inches or more of rainfall extending from eastern Texas into northwest Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. These are the expected rainfall totals starting this morning and ending Tuesday morning from both of these rounds of precipitation. Some isolated areas within this 5 inches or greater region could even see in excess of 7 inches of precipitation!

Despite the threat of some flash flooding from this heavy rain, this comes mostly as good news to this area. Below is the current drought monitor across the United States as of Tuesday morning. As you can see, many areas that are experiencing drought, especially in eastern Texas, will benefit tremendously from this rainfall.

In the near term though, if you live or plan on traveling through this area, be on the lookout for flash flooding. Luckily, due to the lack of snowfall this year, the excess rain should not provide for any long term threat for flooding. However, do allow yourself extra time to get from destination to destination as some of this rainfall could be very heavy and produce almost blinding road conditions at times.