The Past, Present, and Future of Debby

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

Tropical Storm Debby, now Tropical Depression Debby, has weakened some since its formation and slight strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical cyclone that seemed like it could end up anywhere from Florida to Texas according to weather models early on, ended up striking Florida in a very similar scenario to what the GFS model had been predicting for days. Below is the current location of the system along with the expected track over the next five days.

At this time the thinking is that Debby may strengthen again into a weak Tropical Storm, as shown in the maximum wind speed probabilities table below, but should remain off the east coast of the United States. This means that the largest threats to the United States from here on out from Debby should just be some light rain as it exits the Southeast as well as some larger waves along the East Coast.

Despite never gaining hurricane strength, Debby did pack a punch for those affected by her. Tropical storm force winds occurred over a large area of the Florida Peninsula as well as along the Gulf Coast and areas of inland Florida all the way south to the Fort Myers area. Fortunately, most of this wind was below the speed needed to create more widespread damage though areas of isolated wind damage were reported, especially during the stronger thunderstorm bands which passed through the state.

These thunderstorm bands were responsible for more than just wind damage however, some of the strongest storms spawned tornadoes which resulted in one of the system’s two blamed fatalities thus far, the other resulting from a drowning. Below are the images depicting the severe weather reports from the system starting on June 23rd and proceeding through the 26th.

The 23rd resulted in 5 tornado reports, all in Florida due to intense bands of thunderstorms coming ashore and this scenario continued on the 24th, resulting in 20 more tornado reports across Florida. The 24th ended up being the most violent day from Debby in terms of severe weather as a few areas reported damaging wind gusts from thunderstorms as well. Below is an image showing Doppler Radar detected rotation with red lines across the state of Florida on the 24th along with the reports received and the location of the one fatality. It was a very active day for tornado warnings across the southern and central parts of the state as almost all of these rotation tracks prompted a tornado warning.

Over the past two days, the system has pushed across Florida, resulting in more heavy rain than damaging thunderstorms, though a few still existed. However, the tornado threat was over, as the right front quadrant of the storm had moved over the Atlantic waters more.

The main problem from Debby was her rain. Sitting nearly stalled out over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico for a couple days, rain was continually dumped across parts of Florida. Below is the total precipitation over the past 7 days ending this morning across the Southeast.

Amounts in excess of five inches were pretty common across the central and northern parts of Florida with some of the heavier rain even affecting parts of southern Georgia as well. The hardest hit areas in terms of rainfall seemed to be around the Tampa region as well as the Crawfordville area east across the state into the Jacksonville region. Areas in these parts picked up greater than 10 inches of rainfall with some isolated areas probably picking up in excess of 20 inches of rainfall! This has resulted in flooding issues across many parts of Florida and the issuance of Flood Warnings. Gainesville, FL recorded their second highest three day precipitation amount at 12.02 inches and broke its all time record for most rain in the month of June with a total of 16.34 inches so far.

Below are some of the images showing the effects of Debby. All credit for these images goes to the USA Today and all of their storm images can be viewed here.

Tropical Update: Chris is no concern but what about what could be Debby?

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

After an early start to the Atlantic hurricane season with two tropical storms in the month of May, activity came to a lull once the season officially kicked off on June 1st. Now that we are nearly three weeks into the season, things are becoming more active once again. Yesterday, the National Hurricane Center officially named the third topical storm of the Atlantic season, Chris. While many though Chris was destined to be a named storm which has yet to form in the Gulf, mother nature had other ideas. Tropical storm Chris was born way off the east coast and became the third earliest third tropical cyclone to form in the Atlantic. Only the years 1887 and 1959 had their third tropical cyclone from earlier.

Despite a current maximum sustained wind strength of 50 mph, the track of Chris keeps it away from land. Chris should continue moving east to northeast and after some potential strengthening today, should begin to weaken tomorrow and eventually die sometime this weekend.

While Tropical Storm Chris may not be of any concern to the United States, the concern for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico may be. For some time now, the GFS model has been hinting at the potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico sometime late this week. Now that this time is getting closer, the National Hurricane Center has begun to monitor this area and has highlighted it with a 20% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours.

A low pressure trough is in place from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to southern Florida and has been producing widespread cloudiness along with showers and thunderstorms. The system is expected to continue moving slowly northwest into the southeast Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours where it should encounter conditions that will be more favorable for development. If the system does form it will become the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season and acquire the name Debby.

Below is the current 850 mb relative vorticity from the 12Z NAM model showing some weak vorticity across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico area this morning.

As this relative vorticity strengthens, as shown for the 12Z NAM model depicting 48 hours from this morning, tropical development will become more favorable across the Gulf of Mexico.

A big issue for strong development though will be the sea surface temperatures, shown below. While the temperatures themselves are warm enough for development, the highest sea surface temperatures will likely remain just to the west of the system as it makes its track toward the northwest.

If this system moves further west than expected, it may have a chance at strengthening more than anticipated at this moment. However, at this time the NAM model does not expect this to happen. Shown below are the 06Z NAM run and the 12Z NAM run showing what the surface winds and pressure of the system may look like on Saturday afternoon.

Both model runs believe the system will be just south of Louisiana with a central pressure just below 1008 mb. Winds would likely be topping out between 20 and 30 knots, leaving this system just shy of tropical storm strength. If this were to be the case, this system would be nothing more than a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast. Below is the precipitation forecast from the 12Z NAM model showing the total amount of precipitation it expects to fall from this morning until Saturday evening.

Now before ruling this system out as just as rainmaker, the GFS model continues to tell a different tale. The 12Z GFS model has this system moving in a similar track to the NAM model at first with the center of the system being a little ways south of Louisiana, shown below.

Now it is important to note that the NAM model may have a similar solution but due to its run only going out 84 hours, it is impossible to tell where it thinks this system may go. The GFS model does have the system being further south than NAM model though and that could be a reason for what the GFS model thinks may come next. Below is the 12Z GFS model showing what would be Tropical Storm Debby making landfall across central Florida on Monday night.

In this model run, it appears the central pressure would be around 994 mb with peak winds above 40 knots (46 mph). If this were the case, we could be looking at a strong tropical storm hitting Florida with some damaging winds, a tornado threat, and flooding rainfall. Below is the 96 hour precipitation forecast showing total precipitation from this morning until Sunday morning as depicted by the 12Z GFS model.

Before the storm would even make landfall, some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast could pick up well over 3 inches of rain with isolated amounts likely reaching 10 inches. The situation would only get worse as the system would cross Florida in this scenario and head north just off the shore of the East Coast. Shown below is the total precipitation expected by the 12Z GFS model run from Sunday morning until next Thursday morning.

At least another inch of rain will fall across many parts of central and southern Florida with some areas receiving in excess of six inches of precipitation during this time period, shown in white and gray. In fact, some isolated area could see above 10 inches of precipitation during this time period resulting in storm totals nearing 20 inches in the worst hit areas. If this were to come true, there could be widespread flooding issues across the state of Florida.

From here, as mentioned, Debby would head north and actually restrengthen. Below is the 12Z GFS model depicting the storm on next Wednesday morning just off the coast of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The central pressure of the system may be all the way down to around 984 mb with winds in excess of 50 knots.

In this scenario, the system would continue to push northward and gradually weaken as it encountered land, potentially making landfall in Maine. If this were the case, heavy precipitation amount, shown in the precipitation map above, may result in some flooding and beach erosion may become a concern. Additionally, while winds should subside some before making landfall, high winds could still be an issue in coastal areas.

Keep an eye on this tropical system throughout the week as it does pose some potential to become of the first hurricane of the season if it can follow a path similar to what the GFS is thinking. Either way, this system will be bringing a lot of rain to wherever it strikes and people living along the Gulf Coast, especially the eastern half, should continue to monitor this system carefully over the next few days.

Dry Heat Continues Fire Issues in the Southwest

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

The heat is on across many parts of the Southwest prompting excessive heat warnings in some areas. Temperatures will sore to well above 100 today in parts of southwest California, Arizona, southern Nevada, and even across the High Plain region. Temperatures in excess of 110 to 115 degrees may be expected in some more isolated areas, shown below.

The heat will continue tomorrow too, shown below, though it will not be quite as hot as today in most spots across the Southwest. However, this does not mean the heat is coming to an end as the current weather models tend to show an extended period of heat affecting this region. It appears that summer is here and here to stay in the Southwest.

And as if the heat was not bad enough, it appears that the air will be quite dry as well. This dry air will only exasperate the current wildfire situation across the Southwest. There are currently multiple large fires burning across the Southwest area which is shown below.

In fact, some of the larger fires can even be seen on satellite today. Below is a visible satellite image from today showing two large fires in Colorado. One is the in the middle northern portion of the state and has already burnt nearly 60,000 acres resulting in the loss of 181 structures so far. That fire is currently only 45% contained. The other is a smaller fire in the middle of the state west of Colorado Springs. That fire has only burnt about 300 acres so far but it is 0% contained and threatens many structures in the area.

Many of these large fires are burning due to the lack of rain which has occurred in the Southwest this year so far. Below is an image depicting the year to date rainfall across the Southwest as a percentage of normal. As can be seen, a vast majority of the Southwest has seen below normal precipitation so far this year. The areas in reds have seen less than 25% of their typical precipitation thus far this year.

This year’s lack of rainfall across the Southwest, coupled with drought problems from last year, have resulted in continuing drought issues. Below is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor showing almost all of the Southwest at least being abnormally dry. Some areas in northwest Colorado, southeast New Mexico, and parts of Arizona are even experiencing extreme drought.

So far no areas have qualified for exceptional drought, which is good news. But, with monsoon season really still being about a month away and little rain expected in the future, these drought conditions will likely only continue to worsen. Below is the 12Z NAM model’s prediction for precipitation over the next 84 hours ending Thursday evening. Little, if any precipitation is expected over the Southwest during this time period.

The 12Z GFS model does show a better chance for precipitation across parts of Arizona, northern New Mexico, and Colorado for this weekend and early next week though. However, with such dry air in place, much of this precipitation may evaporate before it hits the ground. This could result in dry thunderstorms and could escalate the wildfire issue instead of helping it by creating new lightning sparked fires across the area.

Back to the near term though, dew points will be incredibly low today and tomorrow, shown below. Making matters worse, surface winds will be between 10 and 20 knots or higher for much of the Southwest.

This will result in a large area at risk for wildfires today. A critical area includes much of interior southern California, Nevada, southern Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, western Colorado, and northern Arizona. Other areas across southern Arizona, New Mexico and into eastern Colorado, while not at a critical risk, will still be dealing with ideal conditions for wildfire growth and development. By tomorrow, winds will subside some resulting in less of a risk of wildfires. That being said, a critical risk will still exist across northeast Utah, northwest Colorado, and southern Wyoming. Some risk may also exist across southern Arizona.

If you live or will be traveling to the Southwest anytime soon, please be aware of the heat and fire conditions that will undoubtedly be in place for much of this region. Hopefully some relief will occur this weekend into early next week for fire danger but do not expect it to be long lived.

GFS Model Hinting at Tropical Development

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

For those of you who pay attention to weather models which attempt to predict weather a couple weeks in advance, you may have noticed that the GFS model is continually predicting some sort of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. This post will take a look at the past 24 hours of model runs from the GFS model to highlight some of the similarities and differences between model runs and potential impacts from what could be the third named system of the Atlantic hurricane season, Chris.

If Chris is to form we may start seeing development as early as this coming weekend or into early next week. Below is the 18Z Monday run of the GFS model, showing the system beginning to first become identifiable Friday night into Saturday morning, which would be June 22nd into the 23rd, in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The central pressure of the system would be somewhere between 1005 mb and 1008 mb with winds topping out at just over 20 knots, likely making it a Tropical Depression at this stage.

The 00Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has the development of this system starting sooner in the morning hours of June 21st. The central pressure once again would be between 1005 mb and 1008 mb with winds peaking at potentially just a little stronger, near 25 knots. The key difference here is the earlier starting date for development and development occurring further to the east than the previous model run.

The 06Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has the creation of this system occurring even further to the east, this time actually off the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the night of Tuesday June 19th. The central pressure of the system is still the same at between 1005 mb and 1008 mb and winds peak at around 25 knots, similar to the 00Z run.

Lastly, the 12Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has a similar evolution of the storm to the 00Z run, just starting a little later on the night of the 21st. The central pressure once again should be somewhere between 1005 mb and 1008 mb with peak winds just above 20 knots.

All in all, the model runs are not varying that much on starting strength of this system and even location is not that different with the Yucatan Peninsula area being the area to watch. The main difference will be the timing of development which ranges from the night of June 19th to the early morning hours of June 23rd.

After this, the model runs seem to diverge even more, which partially is due to there being more time between then and now. Taking a look at all of the model runs again, starting with the 18Z Monday run, we see this run has progressed the system north to the coastal area of Mississippi and the Florida panhandle. The central pressure has dropped to between 1001 mb and 1004 mb with winds now peaking at above 30 knots. This is the strongest run for this system and if it were to come true we may see Tropical Storm Chris in the Gulf of Mexico on or around Monday, June 25th.

The 00Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, still has a central pressure just below 1008 mb but has also moved the storm system north toward the Gulf Coast. The winds have also strengthened to just above 30 knots though in not as large of an area as the 18Z run. The system would be located in this location during the evening of June 21st.

The 06Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, still has the central pressure at just below 1008 mb with winds just above 25 knots. This is weaker than the previous two runs but keeps the general track of taking the storm north toward the Gulf Coast. This would be the approximate location of the system on the afternoon of June 21st.

The last model run, the 12Z Tuesday GFS, shown below, has the only solution where the system rides closer to the Texas and Mexico coastlines. The central pressure remains at just below 1008 mb with winds just above 25 knots during the evening hours of June 22nd.

So overall, the system will be at its peaks sometime between the afternoon of June 21st and midday on June 25th. Model runs indicate peaks winds between 25 knots and close to 35 knots with a central pressure lower than 1008 mb and as low as close to 1000mb. It appears that the longer this system can stay over the Gulf, the stronger it may become.

Taking a look at where this system may dissipate now, the 18Z Monday run, shown below, has the system actually running up the east coast and restrengthening off the coasts of New Jersey and Connecticut. In fact, this could be the strongest portion of the system though most of the stronger winds would be off the coast. Nonetheless, this could bring a rain and wave threat to the east coast for June 25th through the 26th. From here, the system will continue quickly north and into Canada. This is the only run which has the system making it this far north as you will see so it is difficult to say whether this is a real possibility at this time, though this would be the most concerning path.

The 00Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, has the system weaken and eventually die over the Mississippi and Alabama areas.

The 06Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, also has the system making landfall on the Gulf Coast and weakening in about the same way as the 00Z run did.

The 12Z Tuesday GFS model run, shown below, takes the system in the Texas and Mexico border area where it weakens. This is the only run that did not take the system toward the Florida panhandle area and would actually be the most beneficial solution if it occurred as will be explained below.

Overall, the system could die out over a large range of land and therefore this part is especially up in the air. Taking a look at the precipitation forecasts for the 96 hours leading up to the dissipation of the system for each model run below, we can see the paths of the different models quite well.

We see the general track from the Gulf of Mexico and up the eastern seaboard for the 18Z Monday run. We also see the similar tracks of the 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs for the system to weaken and die out along the Gulf Coast region. Lastly, we can see the rainfall for Texas and Mexico for the 12Z track.

Overall, it appears the main threat at the moment for this system will be its rainfall. For the Texas area, if the storm were to head this direction many areas of southern Texas may see in excess of 2 inches of rainfall which would be welcome news in that area. The previous three runs however, bring a lot of rain to the Gulf Coast, an area that is just beginning to dry out after a very wet weekend for most. Many areas picked up large amounts of rainfall such as West Pensacola which picked up a staggering 23.58 inches of rain in 48 hours. The Mobile area was also struck with heavy amounts of rain which contributed to flooding issues. Below is an image showing just how much rain has fallen over these areas in the past week.



If this system were to affect these areas we could be looking at another round of flooding rains. This could lead to repeating concerns of floods throughout this area as we continue through hurricane season as many storms are suppose to be home grown this season due to the strengthening El Nino conditions. This means more storms may form in the Gulf and immediately dump rain across these areas. This will certainly be something worth monitoring as head into the end of this week and early next week.