Dry Heat Continues Fire Issues in the Southwest

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

The heat is on across many parts of the Southwest prompting excessive heat warnings in some areas. Temperatures will sore to well above 100 today in parts of southwest California, Arizona, southern Nevada, and even across the High Plain region. Temperatures in excess of 110 to 115 degrees may be expected in some more isolated areas, shown below.

The heat will continue tomorrow too, shown below, though it will not be quite as hot as today in most spots across the Southwest. However, this does not mean the heat is coming to an end as the current weather models tend to show an extended period of heat affecting this region. It appears that summer is here and here to stay in the Southwest.

And as if the heat was not bad enough, it appears that the air will be quite dry as well. This dry air will only exasperate the current wildfire situation across the Southwest. There are currently multiple large fires burning across the Southwest area which is shown below.

In fact, some of the larger fires can even be seen on satellite today. Below is a visible satellite image from today showing two large fires in Colorado. One is the in the middle northern portion of the state and has already burnt nearly 60,000 acres resulting in the loss of 181 structures so far. That fire is currently only 45% contained. The other is a smaller fire in the middle of the state west of Colorado Springs. That fire has only burnt about 300 acres so far but it is 0% contained and threatens many structures in the area.

Many of these large fires are burning due to the lack of rain which has occurred in the Southwest this year so far. Below is an image depicting the year to date rainfall across the Southwest as a percentage of normal. As can be seen, a vast majority of the Southwest has seen below normal precipitation so far this year. The areas in reds have seen less than 25% of their typical precipitation thus far this year.

This year’s lack of rainfall across the Southwest, coupled with drought problems from last year, have resulted in continuing drought issues. Below is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor showing almost all of the Southwest at least being abnormally dry. Some areas in northwest Colorado, southeast New Mexico, and parts of Arizona are even experiencing extreme drought.

So far no areas have qualified for exceptional drought, which is good news. But, with monsoon season really still being about a month away and little rain expected in the future, these drought conditions will likely only continue to worsen. Below is the 12Z NAM model’s prediction for precipitation over the next 84 hours ending Thursday evening. Little, if any precipitation is expected over the Southwest during this time period.

The 12Z GFS model does show a better chance for precipitation across parts of Arizona, northern New Mexico, and Colorado for this weekend and early next week though. However, with such dry air in place, much of this precipitation may evaporate before it hits the ground. This could result in dry thunderstorms and could escalate the wildfire issue instead of helping it by creating new lightning sparked fires across the area.

Back to the near term though, dew points will be incredibly low today and tomorrow, shown below. Making matters worse, surface winds will be between 10 and 20 knots or higher for much of the Southwest.

This will result in a large area at risk for wildfires today. A critical area includes much of interior southern California, Nevada, southern Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, western Colorado, and northern Arizona. Other areas across southern Arizona, New Mexico and into eastern Colorado, while not at a critical risk, will still be dealing with ideal conditions for wildfire growth and development. By tomorrow, winds will subside some resulting in less of a risk of wildfires. That being said, a critical risk will still exist across northeast Utah, northwest Colorado, and southern Wyoming. Some risk may also exist across southern Arizona.

If you live or will be traveling to the Southwest anytime soon, please be aware of the heat and fire conditions that will undoubtedly be in place for much of this region. Hopefully some relief will occur this weekend into early next week for fire danger but do not expect it to be long lived.

Heat Set to Return to the Northeast and Dry Air Takes Hold in the Southwest

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

Below are the forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center for 6 to 10 days out, June 10th – 14th, for the probability of temperatures being above and below average and precipitation being above and below average.

The Climate Prediction Center has also issued a forecast for the same variables for the 8 to 14 day period which would be from June 12th – 18th.

The Northeast

A cold front pushed through the northeast late last week bringing rounds of storms to the area. Behind that, the northeast has been under an air mass providing for seasonable, if not below average, temperatures for the past few days. Temperatures will slowly begin to climb this week and by this weekend above average temperatures will be in store for most again. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above average temperatures being likely across the northeast from June 10th through the 18th. The 18Z run of the GFS model depicts this early on in the period as shown below.

The top image shows temperatures for the early to mid afternoon on June 11th and the second image shows temperatures for the early to mid afternoon on June 12th. Temperatures may exceed 90 degrees in some areas meaning daytime highs could reach around the 95 mark in some isolated areas. Most areas of the Northeast will see high temperatures at least into the upper 70s to low 80s with most areas being well into the 80s though.

The forecasts diverge somewhat come the second half of the period as the Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate above average temperatures being likely. However, these forecasts are not as likely as they forecasted during the first half of the period. Meanwhile, the 18Z run of the GFS model expects some cooler air to potentially enter parts of the Northeast. Below is the early to mid afternoon temperatures for June 18th. Some temperatures are struggling to reach the 60 degree mark in New York state on this date according to the GFS. Granted this forecast is pretty far out but it may be that the warm temperature returning to the Northeast this week do not last as long as the Climate Prediction Center believes they will.

The Southwest

The Southwest has been suffering from drought conditions for some time now. As of the May 29th update, most of the Southwest has been classified under a severe drought.

In fact, many of these areas across the Southwest have received little, if any, precipitation during the past two weeks.

This, combined with the lack of precipitation expected in the near future, will set the stage for fire weather across this area. The June 10th through 18th period is expected to result in below average precipitation across the Southwest according to the Climate Prediction Center. The 18Z run of the GFS model shown below shows this below average precipitation over this time period.

For this reason, some areas of the Southwest have been highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center as being under a threat for wildfires on June 8th and 9th. This threat for wildfires will undoubtedly continue beyond this time frame as dry air continues to stay in place.

Below is the 18Z GFS model showing very low dewpoints and strong surface winds across the threat area on the 8th and the 9th. In fact some dewpoints may struggle to hit zero degrees showing just how dry the air will be across the desert Southwest.

Wildfire Risk for Parts of the High Plains

Originally posted on ZoomRadar

A critical to extreme risk of wildfires is currently underway across parts of the High Plains and will continue for the next couple days. This is being caused by an upper-level low which will be crossing the region creating for dry and windy conditions on the western side of a dry line and advancing cold front.

Below are the risk maps for today and tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center. The maps show a critical to extreme risk for today basically along the eastern slopes of the Rockies with the extreme risk occurring in eastern Colorado, extreme southeastern Wyoming, and extreme northwestern Nebraska. The threat moves tomorrow to include most of Nebraska, southern South Dakota, and parts of eastern Wyoming though no extreme threat is indicated at this time.

The fire risk is being helped out by a lack of moisture over these areas this month as shown below. Most areas inside this risk for wildfires have seen less than 50% of the typical amount of precipitation they would normally see over this time period with some areas even seeing less than 5% of the typical amount of precipitation they would normally see over the past 30 days!

Coupled with this lack of moisture, strong southerly surface winds will aid the problem today and tonight bringing warm and dry air in as depicted by the NAM model below. Sustained wind speeds in excess of 20 knots will be in place across much of the northern section of the threat zone today with some areas even seeing sustained winds up to 30 knots. Below this is an image showing just how much dry and warm air is being advected into this area, with 850 mb temperatures being above 20 degrees Celsius in most of the wildfire risk area this evening and some areas even seeing this number reach above 25 degrees Celsius. Dew points at the surface (not shown here) will also be well below 30 degrees Fahrenheit for most of the areas to the west of this area of 25 degree Celsius or greater 850 mb temperature, showing just how dry this air is.

Tomorrow the cold front will push through switching the winds to a more northwesterly direction but they will still be quite strong for some, especially across the southern South Dakota portion of the threat area as depicted below by the NAM model.

Wind gusts will be even higher across these areas today and tomorrow prompting the issuance of High Wind Warnings across much of the northern High Plains. There have already been numerous reports of small fires across the threat area for today. Luckily, a couple storm systems should bring some chances at rain over the next week for this area, which will hopefully cut down on any long term problems this area may experience this spring due to wildfires.