Lake Effect Tonight and Frost Tomorrow Night

Lake Effect

Lake effect rain and snow showers will likely get started shortly after sunset tonight and will continue throughout the overnight.  At this point it looks like if you are inland of Lake Ontario that the atmosphere should be cold enough in the low levels for a complete changeover to snow by midnight.  This activity will start across the northern half of Jefferson and Lewis Counties and sink south to around southern Jefferson and central Lewis Counties around midnight.  By sunrise the lake effect rain and snow will centered across the Tug Hill area.  As temperatures warm with sunrise, the lake effect snow will begin to change back to all rain by late morning and the band itself will continue to sink south slowly, perhaps reaching a few areas just south of the Tug Hill region.  By early afternoon if any lake effect rain is around it should begin to break up quickly as 850 mb temperatures warm and create a less favorable environment for lake effect.  The band may also move slightly north before dissipating.  To the right is what I expect for snowfall totals tonight and early tomorrow morning.  The gray area will have snowflakes possible tonight, the light blue area will have snowflakes likely with a dusting of snow possible, and the darker blue area will probably see a dusting a snow and perhaps up to an inch or so in some areas.

The Frost

Tomorrow night we transition to colder temperatures than tonight even.  Without the lake effect clouds and the stronger winds helping keep the temperature a bit warmer at the surface, temperatures will plummet.  A widespread frost can be expected for all areas in the north country with the exception of a few areas near the lake shore that will be protected by the warmer lake waters.  While most areas will see temperatures fall to between 27 and 32, a few areas could see mid 20s for low temperatures.  Regardless, everyone should take measures to protect their plants tomorrow night (and tonight also).  Fruit trees that have blossomed should only receive minimal damage to their blossoms but if temperatures do fall into the mid 20s, preventive measures to save the yield of the trees will be needed.  To the right are the predicted lows from the National Weather Service for tomorrow night.

Stay warm everyone, warmer weather is on the way!