2013 Chasing Days

Want to know when your best chance to go storm chasing will be?  In a new segment on my blog, I will post periodic updates informing you of when your best chance of tracking down that big storm could be.

Based on the latest model guidance, these are the days I consider their to be a chance of severe weather in the short to medium range.

February 9th

The latest Day 2 Outlook from the SPC shows a slight risk of storms across portions of northern Texas and southwest Oklahoma.  The main threats here will be wind along with the potential for a tornado or two and some small hail.  These storms will occur along and just in front of a sharp cold front pushing east through the region.  Limited moisture and instability will keep this threat relatively low.

February 10th

The latest Day 3 Outlook from the SPC depicts a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas, most of Louisiana, and western Mississippi.  These storms will be associated with the same warm sector and advancing cold front as the previous day's storms.  Once again, limited moisture and instability will preclude a more significant threat.  Nevertheless, damaging winds will be the main threat along with some potential for marginally severe hail and a couple tornadoes.

February 11th and 12th

Thunderstorms may continue in some limited instability and moisture along areas of the Gulf Coast and across southern Georgia and northern Florida.  Once again this should be a limited threat with only a few damaging wind reports or hail reports.  Shear values support a weak tornado or two.





February 13th

Thunderstorms will exist across portions of central Florida during this period.  Moisture will be fairly good but instability will be limited still.  The main threats should be damaging winds and some marginally severe hail though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially in the northern sections of the threat area.



In this section, I will give some estimates on severe weather dates in the long term.  These dates are not based solely off of model guidance but rather based on information from teleconnections and other knowledge.  It is important to remember that these dates are far from set in stone and the farther away they are, the more likely they are to change.  But I figured hey, let's have some fun and see how close I can come on some of these springtime events.  Below is what I am thinking for events through about Mid-April.

February 19th - Southern Texas
February 20th - Gulf Coast
February 21st - Florida
February 24th - Southern Plains
February 25th - Mississippi Valley
March 6th - Mississippi Valley
March 7th - Deep South
March 21st - South/Central Plains
March 22nd - Deep South
March 23rd - Southeast
March 25th - Mississippi Valley
March 26th - Southeast
March 30th - Southern Plains
April 2nd - Southeast/Midwest
April 4th - South Plains/Mississippi Valley
April 5th - Southeast
April 10th - South Plains/Mississippi Valley
April 11th - Southeast

Be on the lookout for my next update in a few days!