The National Hurricane Center does not expect Beryl to strengthen much as it continues its anticipated track towards the Georgia and northern Florida coasts. The table below shows the intensity probabilities for Beryl who should remain tropical storm strength at its maximum intensity right before landfall.
However, the 12Z runs of the NAM and GFS models do show distinct differences both in track and strength of this system. Below is the NAM model’s depiction of surface winds around midnight tonight. It appears the strongest winds will be just off the coast of South Carolina and Georgia and peak just above 30 knots. From here, Beryl is projected to weaken and continue moving inland over Georgia and northern Florida.
The GFS model on the other hand, shown below, depicts much stronger surface winds over a larger area tonight around midnight. It appears the GFS believes that winds will peak closer to 40 knots and be a bit further out to sea at this time also. This slower track may be what is allowing Beryl to strengthen more in the GFS solution than in the NAM solution.
The GFS model goes on to strengthen these winds a bit more to just above 40 knots as Beryl approaches the Georgia coast on Sunday evening. This appears to be closer to the solution that the National Hurricane Center is going with both in wind speeds and location of the system. The GFS model then brings Beryl into Georgia and Florida much like the NAM model.
There are further differences between the two models once Beryl makes landfall however. The NAM model seems to want to push Beryl off into the Gulf of Mexico just off the coasts of Florida and Alabama. Meanwhile, the GFS model keeps Beryl mainly over northern Florida before moving it up the coast, much like the National Hurricane Center track again. Granted, the NAM model only goes out 84 hours so it is possible the NAM model will follow this track also. Nevertheless, the main threat from Beryl is going to be its rainfall. Below is the prediction from the HPC.
This is where you can really see the differences in the intensity and track between the two models. Below is the NAM model showing total precipitation from this morning until Tuesday evening. From this it is easy to see that the NAM model is putting a lot more precipitation out into the Gulf of Mexico due to its track of the storm over this location.
The GFS model total precipitation shown below, depicts how much precipitation is expected to fall from this morning through Thursday morning. This is the same time frame as the HPC forecast and therefore shows very similar results. This may also be due to the fact that the GFS track is very similar to the National Hurricane Center’s expected track as mentioned previously.
The GFS model also has heavier total precipitation values than the NAM, even when you eliminate the extra time it has to do so. This is likely because of the stronger intensity of the storm which the GFS believes will develop. Based on this, it is likely some areas of the southeast will benefit from Beryl by picking up some much needed rainfall. Uncertainty arises when it comes to exactly how much rainfall and the exact track of the storm, especially after making landfall. One thing is for certain though, Beryl will surely bring a washout to parts of the southeast this Memorial Day. Stay up to date on the latest details with ZoomRadar and the NHC.